> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.sweatyspice.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # I Want to Believe. That's What Worries Me. - URL: https://www.sweatyspice.com/i-want-to-believe-thats-what-worries-me/ - Published: 2026-11-01T16:19:39.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-01T16:19:39.000Z - Description: Two days before the midterms, the polls look promising, the Republicans look nervous, and I'm trying very hard not to be Eeyore. - Author: Geoff Anderson - Tags: Political Musing I've been a registered Democrat for most of my life, which means I've had plenty of opportunities to watch the party form a circular firing squad, conduct an auto-da-fé, and then wonder aloud how things went so terribly wrong. So perhaps you'll forgive me for being a little nervous about all the hopium floating around the Democratic and Never Trump punditry these days. We're hearing predictions of Democrats picking up 25–40 House seats. The Senate, which not long ago looked like a long shot, is suddenly very much in play. Even Jonathan V. Last, The Bulwark's resident purveyor of doom and gloom, has been entertaining scenarios involving 54 or even 56 Democratic senators. Texas! Alaska! Iowa! Kansas! South Carolina! Mississippi! Lordy, we're practically measuring the *drapes*.[1](https://www.sweatyspice.com/i-want-to-believe-thats-what-worries-me/#fn1) And I so want to believe. But I remember September 2024, when Harris enthusiasm was seemingly everywhere, the vibes were immaculate, and expressing the slightest concern that Trump might actually win earned me the Eeyore treatment. We know how that turned out. ### Kansas? Really? The thing that really set off my alarm bells was a [remarkable Washington Post article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/30/we-polled-kansas-democrats-wanted-talk-republicans-not-so-much/?ref=sweatyspice.com) about its latest Kansas Senate poll. Democrat Adam Hamilton leads incumbent Republican Roger Marshall by nine points. Nine. Points. In Kansas, which hasn't elected a Democrat to the United States Senate since 1932. Now, Marshall has plenty of political baggage, and other polls also show a competitive race. But the Post's account of conducting its survey was fascinating and not entirely reassuring. Democrats were considerably more willing to participate than Republicans. The pollsters worked to compensate for that imbalance, but their respondents recalled Trump's 2024 Kansas victory as considerably narrower than it actually was. That's a problem. You can weight a survey to get the right proportion of Republicans, but what happens when the Republicans willing to answer the phone are fundamentally different from those who won't? It is entirely possible that the Democratic enthusiasm reflected in these surveys is real. It is also possible that some of that enthusiasm is distorting the measurements. Both things can be true. And when so many of these supposedly winnable Senate races have Democratic leads of only a couple of points, a relatively modest polling error can make a mess of everyone's election-night expectations. Sweaty's Corner doesn't have a marketing budget or an algorithm pushing it into anyone's feed. It has readers who share it. If this one landed, sending it to someone who'd get something out of it — or subscribing so the next one finds you directly — genuinely moves the needle. [ Subscribe ](#/portal/signup) Share this post ### But then there's the Republican behavior Here is the ray of sunshine that keeps me from retreating completely into my Eeyore costume. The Republicans are acting like they have a serious problem. Not just saying it. Acting like it. You can smell it as the flop-sweat oozing from their pores. Republican campaign organizations have been [redirecting money away from North Carolina to defend Roger Marshall in Kansas](https://apnews.com/article/72a0a3ff32c3626396f72ba77dc0264f?ref=sweatyspice.com). They're spending to protect incumbents in places like South Carolina and Mississippi, states that under ordinary circumstances shouldn't require this much attention. And Trump has been dispatched to rallies in reliably Republican territory, trying to prop up candidates who, in a normal election year, might spend October measuring their Senate office furniture. That's not the behavior I'd expect from a party confidently anticipating a comfortable election. There's an important caveat, of course. Campaign managers spend money to prevent disasters, not merely because they're certain one is coming. And Republican private polling could suffer from the same problems as public polling. But money is real. When campaigns abandon one fight to reinforce another, they're revealing something about their priorities and concerns. In 2024, I remember the Trump operation projecting confidence even while the Harris enthusiasm was reaching a fever pitch. Whether their internal polling was actually better is another question. This time, the reported Republican anxiety seems to be reflected in their spending decisions. Maybe the Democrats are drinking their own Kool-Aid, but the Republicans appear to be checking the exits. ### And then there's Susan Collins I remain convinced that Susan Collins has a collection of horcruxes hidden somewhere in Maine. Every six years, we're told that *this time* she's finally going to lose. And every six years, she somehow survives to return to Washington, where she can express grave concern over whatever Republicans are doing before eventually finding a way to live with it. She won by almost nine points in 2020 despite late polling suggesting she might lose. Now Troy Jackson is polling ahead of her in several surveys. I've seen this movie before. I'm not counting that seat until someone locates and destroys the final horcrux. Meanwhile, Democrats have been engaging in their customary internal fragging in Michigan, where the conflict involving Haley Stevens, her fiancé, and Abdul El-Sayed has supplied an entirely unnecessary distraction in the closing days of the campaign. Because apparently an election this consequential would be incomplete without a little self-inflicted drama. ### So where does that leave us? I'm not predicting disaster. Quite the contrary. There are substantial reasons to believe that Democrats could have an excellent Tuesday. The national political environment, the number of unexpectedly competitive races, and the defensive behavior of Republican campaign organizations all point toward a party facing serious headwinds. And I'd be delighted to see a genuine electoral tsunami. But somewhere along the way, the punditry seems to have started confusing *possible* with *probable*, and *probable* with *inevitable*. Those are three very different things. A Democratic wave that captures the House but falls short in the Senate would still be a significant result. It shouldn't become a disappointment simply because everyone spent the last three weeks fantasizing about six improbable Senate pickups. I want the wave. Hell, I want the tsunami. I want to watch the returns come in Tuesday night and discover that the polls actually *underestimated* the backlash against Trump and the Republicans. But I've been a Democrat long enough to know better than to count my chickens before they've hatched. Mulder had his poster. I have my skepticism. **I want to believe.** I'll count the chickens Wednesday morning. --- [1](https://www.sweatyspice.com/i-want-to-believe-thats-what-worries-me/#end1) \- Harris claimed that **Shapiro** was fixated on the **vice presidential** residence, which included **measuring drapes**, counting bedrooms and asking if the Smithsonian would lend Pennsylvania art for display while being vetted by Harris to be her potential running mate. From her Memoir.