The Art of the "Soft TACO"

Last spring, a financial analyst from The Financial Times coined the term "TACO," basically to represent a definite pattern by the tangerine tinges tyrant: Trump Always Chickens Out.

It first manifested itself in the aftermath of the initial tranche of batshit insane tariffs announced on April 1, 2025. The markets did what markets do, and responded, rapidly and negatively.

This spooked the Shit-gibbon of doom with the ferret-like comb-over, and he backed away, announcing a 90 day "pause".

TACO was born, and the markets, being soulless money-grubbing fuckers that they are, began to anticipate this near universal behavior. And the traders got fat, dumb and happy, replete with the knowledge that Trump would do something completely fucked up, but if your computerized trading system was set right, you could make bank, and pocket lots (and LOTS) of foldable cash at the expense of the retail traders.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

The war with Iran has provided ample opportunites.

Lots of bombs drop - the market drops, hours later the Mouth-anus oozes something like the hostilities are almost over, the markets soar. Traders get in and out, and make oodles of money.

And Trump has learned to time his shittiness to be after markets close on Fridays, allowing him to be a bad-ass all weekend before he pulls back, giving relief to the markets.

Last Saturday, at 7:40(ish) PM EDT, he bleated that he gave Iran 48 hours to make a deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or he would direct the US to blow the everloving fuck out of civilian infrastructure (powerplants, water and sewage plants - you know the things that are taboo in the Geneva Conventions - but clearly Kegsbreath ain't gon' be sissified by no international laws goddammit).

Then, at 7:05AM Monday, Trump TACO'd. He announced that Iran "totally" has come to the table and was doing good faith negotiations, so he was going to grant a 5 day extension to the armageddon that he was so totally ready to do.

And the markets rejoiced (and it appears that an insider placed a large market order 15 minuted before said bleat, and walked away $590M richer, because, why not).

But two things to point out: First, Iran responded on social media and other media venues that no, they weren't in negotiations, and that there was no progress. Second, that extension would end when? Of, Friday, March 27, after the markets closed.

Still, the TACO maneuvre worked.

The Lead-In

I had been keeping an eye on the happenings all week, and what I was seeing wasn't encouraging.

First, the Trump administration was trying to get the Iranian leadership into negotiations. They were offering plans to be sent to the Iranians via Pakistan and other surrogates, and their response to the 15-point plan was, to put it plainly, "Go Fuck Yourself".

It is clear that negotiations to a terminus of the ordeal has not begun. And this is partly because in the run up to the start of hostilities, we (the duo of Kushner and Witkoff) had been meeting with the leaders, and apparently, we had been providing details on these people, their movements to our "allies" (the Israelis) who then leveraged that information to target and kill all those people. Oops.

You can hardly blame them for a lack of "trust".

Second, the dispatching of a Marine Expeditionary Force from Okinawa to the theater (due to arrive Friday), and the mobilization of the 82nd Airborne quick strike assets sure seem to be saying that we are indeed going to put troops into harm's way. The smart money is that they will "take" Kharg island, the oil terminal infrastructure.

And while I have no doubt that we could take it. Holding it and resupplying those troops will not be an easy task, even for the most advanced military the planet has ever known.

I hear people say Trump isn't that stupid but look up "victory disease" and when you hear people the Sec Treas Scott Bessent mutter the phrase "escalate to de-escalate" you know that none of these chuckle-fucks have any idea of what happened in Vietnam 60 years ago.

And all these assembled troops will be ready this weekend.

Soft TACO

Thursday afternoon, after the markets closed markedly down, the traders clearly realizing that negotiations weren't happening, and that drove both the Dow and NASDAQ into correction territory (10% drops), with the S&P 500 sucking wind too, Trump decided to do his TACO two-step again, and he announced that great progress has been made, AND Iran has provided a gift (that turned out to be letting some friendly to Iran tankers through, who had paid a tithe to the Iranians to guarantee safe passage - some gift) that he was going to extend the detente until Monday April 6th.

But Friday morning, the markets dropped precipitously, again. This time, the TACO two-step didn't have the Trumpian magic.

The markets heard what he was flapping his gums about, but this time, they are finally realizing that this isn't going to end quickly, nor is it going to end cleanly. Trump can't control the actions, and even if he packed up all his toys, and went home, the damage is done.

Iran's horrible regime is still firmly in control, there is no easy way to lever them out, the population of the country is hunkered down, and while Bibi and MBS are egging the Don on, because they know that without our troops in Iran, their dream of eliminating that Shia theocratic threat from the region is dashed for generations.

But here's the thing, we would need to mobilize in a degree that will make Iraq in 2003 seem like an exercise.

And the American people want none of that.

Summary

The situation is fucked. There is no easy way out. It looks like the markets are finally realizing that this is going to be a long slog. It is clear that Trump has no idea what he got himself into, but I fear that victory disease is setting it. His advisors are still whispering in his ears that this is great. Lindsey Graham is comparing this opportunity to Iwo Jima. That fucker needs to be suited up in battle dress and needs to be part of the paratrooper drop onto Kharg island.

And still, the Epstein files are there, causing all sorts of mayhem that Trump can't control.

And as much as I fear to get excited, it is looking like the House and possibly the Senate will go Blue in the November elections, and that will open the entire administration and all their shitbirds to oversight.