Never Trump Pundits - Some thoughts

Sure, they are doing a service. But is it actually making a difference? I don't see it moving the needle

After my subscription to The Bulwark ran down, not to be renewed, I have some observations of reading and listening to 3 years of “Never Trump” punditry on The Bulwark and a few other places.

Before I get on my rant box, I would like to emphasize that this rant is NOT directed at fellow citizens who have been consistently “never Trump”. I know there are many (former?) Republicans who were repelled by the walking human Garbage that is Donald Trump. You rock, and I salute you, and gladly will walk the lines with you. This rant is directed at the journalists, former Weekly Standard writers, the former talk radio hosts, and political consultant class who found Jesus, but can’t quite go the extra step.

With that out of the way, let’s get started.

The Start …

When I first connected with the “resistance,” it was during the tail end of the 2020 election. And by connected, I mean The Bulwark. In October 2020, just as they were turning on the paywall, I dove into their deep end.

Prior to that, I had noticed that on occasion, a former right wing talk radio host, Charlie Sykes, had penned some rather thoughtful OpEds in the Gray Lady (the NY Times) that made me rethink my priors. I followed him on Twitter, and by and large I was nodding my head. He was consistently smacking down the idiocy that the Trump administration was engaged in.

Thus, when I clicked on a link he shared to this nascent news site, The Bulwark, I dove in deep. Here was a cadre of former right-wing influencers, writers, and others who had recognized the danger that Trump and his minions presented to the US, and who had torched their comfortable perches in the right-wing ecosystem to tell the truth, even if that meant giving up very lucrative positions.

When the firm paywall went up, I opened my wallet and bought. Truth is that I had become hooked on some of the personalities. Charlie may have gotten me in the door, but contributors like Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell, Kim Wehle, and others were a welcome harbor of calmness in the cesspool of the media that increasingly was the net result of the Trump administration. I mean how fucking many NY Times series of articles of Trump supporters in middle American greasy spoon diners to understand the “Trump Voter’s” motivation.

Hell, they even made fun of those self-same articles.

I was addicted, checking the main site every morning, listening to the daily podcasts, enjoying the paywalled pods (the Secret and Next Level). I eagerly waited for the paid newsletter, The Triad, every day. In Jonathan Last (JVL) I found a fellow cynic, with a dark bent, whose writing resonated with me that drops around 9 AM Pacific time.

When the first year was up, it was a no brainer to renew.

But after the second year and the renewal, I began having doubts.

The troubles begin to surface …

Sure, the editorial team was consistently beating on the insanity that Republican politicians were uttering and spewing.

One of their principals, Sarah Longwell, runs a political consultancy (Longwell and Associates) that conduct a lot of focus groups to take the temperature of the political landscape.

And a dedicated podcast where she invites political talking heads to listen to snippets from a variety of groups that filter on party affiliation, prior voting habits, and other traits.

And these snippets are just fucking awful. These “average Americans” are often willfully ignorant, misguided, and completely impervious to logic and reason. They are cocooned in their comfortable media bubble, most often Fox News, and the universe of further right clones like Newsmax, and OANN and demonstrating that they believe completely insane things. Things that are so untrue, and that fail to pass any sense of smell test are accepted without any rational basis.

Then there was the rampant tendency to both sides everything. Even when the Republican position was so bugfucking insane, the impulse to find something to quibble with on the left.

The start of the Ukranian invasion was the first time I began questioning my money helping fund their staffing. They brought in a (supposedly) center-right writer who had connections to the former USSR, Cathy Young, to be their color commentator on all things Russia and Ukraine. Alas, she is a dogmatic Libertarian (she wrote for Reason magazine FFS) who is incapable of writing without a heavy dollop of bothsides slathered on it.

For a short period, she took over the daily “Morning Shots” newsletter publishing a Sunday edition (the Morning Shots is the daily post by Charlie Sykes), and she stepped into it big time shortly after the Supreme Court tossed the Roe decision in 2022. Upon the tossing, that meant that in Ohio abortion was immediately illegal. There was a case where a pregnant 10 year old girl was forced to travel to Indiana for an abortion. Cathy went full “bullshit” on this, expounding about how this was just too perfect, too out of central casting that it had to be fake.

She was eviscerated in the comments, and even after the story was confirmed as true, she just never issued a retraction or correction.

No, she is a fucking trainwreck, and a terrible hire. I have read many of her other articles, and they are all tinged with the large L libertarian bullshit.

Then came the hiring of Will Saletan, a former writer at Salon, as the token (Colmes?) liberal, but at best Saletan is a liberal-lite. Many of his takes during his career at Salon are true head scratchers. I can’t help but wonder if he was merely a diversity hire.

The day I canceled my subscription they announced that they were hiring yet another Biden alarmist, AB Stoddard. Oy vey.

Truth is that they really like to pat themselves on the back for being the OG Never Trump group.

Ok, but what are they accomplishing?

I will admit that it is good to hear former right-wing personalities come to grips with their priors. But what change are they driving?

Are Trump voters being convinced to rethink their support? Clearly from the Focus Group podcast, that isn’t happening. The Trump cohort of the population, probably a solid 30% of the country are fully in the Trump cult, and that number seems pretty durable. That is, it is neither growing nor shrinking.

No matter what outlets like The Bulwark publish, say, do, this seems to be static.

And Republican leaders/politicians are all still on the Trump train, regardless of whether they say privately that they think he’s a fucking moron and the worst for the country, in public they get in line.

So, what are these Never Trump sites and personalities accomplishing?

Sure, they would prefer Nikki Haley or Asa Hutchinson would win the nomination. And I would like a whirlwind weekend with Scarlet Johannsen, but I suspect I have more of a chance of that happening than Haley beating Trump.

As I exited my membership, I noted that they have more than 220K subscribers, and probably 30 - 40K paying subscribers (a net income of ~ $4M).

They have a bit of a chubbie over some people who are just awful (cough - Ruy Texiera - cough) that I just can’t stand. But Ruy can utter some “centrist” trope¹ and they practically cream in their jeans, that confirms their priors.

Their mission is purported to move enough voters to stop supporting the MAGA candidates.

It doesn’t look like they are having any success. Sure they pound on the idiocy of Trump, track his legal struggles, make fun of the idiots who should know better but still support the Cheeto colored shit-gibbon.

Seems to me like they are just tilting at windmills. Trump is miles ahead of his challengers, the third of their great hopes (DeSantis, Scott, and now Haley) is taking their turn on dais of the great white hope to retire The Donald.

Here’s a clue, Haley might be the current best of the losers. Every event that happens to Trump, events that in a rational time would be career ending to any politician, seems to further harden his support in the base, and it seems to attract more of this supposedly “independent²” middle voter population.

Where does this leave me?

Look, I do not rue my three years as a subscriber. But in three years, I just began to realize that they are taking the same shots, saying the same things, but it isn’t actually moving the needle. Trump is just as awful. Just as dangerous, and he is now better than an even chance to win next year.

And all I hear is “Biden is old”, “why can’t we get Josh Shapiro, or Gretchen Whitmer, or Jared Polis to replace Biden?”, “Biden’s support for Israel over Palestinians is going to cost him his young voters, and Trump is going to win³” and a steady stream of doom and gloom.

Almost like the MSM outlets.

And I don’t need to fund that.

I applaud their truth telling (mostly). I am glad that there are some on the right that are less insane. But that’s all.

I do still read some of their “free” content, but it is with a healthy dose of cynicism and a dollop of “what are you going to do about it?” and move on.

1. a centrist trope that really is a right of center fantasy of what a centrist trope is

2. Honestly, I really doubt that there are ~ 45% of the population are “Independent”, but instead it has become a badge of honor to claim you are “independent” but if you do an analysis of the voting patterns I suspect that you would find a majority of the “independent” are really Republicans or Democrats in cloaking mode.

3. This one really BBQs me, they are good at pointing out the anti-Zionism (borderline antisemitism) of the Gen Z and younger Millennials as a concern. Uh, I thought you appreciated Biden’s full-throated defense of Israel.

---