Sending you ((hugs)) of reassurance. Look its not over, and the polls - whilst they may be 'accurate' are not telling the whole story. There are, what? 365 million Americans? These polls are only carried out on a few hundred to a thousand mostly self-selecting sample of people at the most. The headline is not reflected in the detailed meta data of the polls. Oh certainly, one metric might be pro-Trump (white middle class men) putting Harris at 50/50 chance, but if you look deeply, Harris is consistently winning 47 - 50+ to Trump's 33 - (there are a lot of undecideds in this election it appears) in poll after poll. Then there's this: On John Oliver's Last Week tonight show this week he looked at voter intimidation. Research showed that people are consistently saying what they think the interviewer wants to hear because they are too scared to dissent. The reality is, they have no intention of actually voting for Trump, they are just saying they will to get the scary MAGA off the phone!
Also, Republicans are now supporting Harris. DonOld's dementing has gone too far and Harris tonight calling him a fascist without any real push-back from the MSM is more telling that any poll.
The penny is dropping that a vote for Trump is quite likely going to mean President Vance inside a year because DonOld will be likely diagnosed with dementia of one sort or another and become unfit for Office so Vance will invoke the 25th amendment and bam! "That's MR PRESIDENT to you, Mate!" Across the GOP there are cries of "oh hell no!" and promises that a silent majority will now vote for Harris. https://www.rawstory.com/barbara-comstock-trump-silent-majority/
"People" are waking up to the awfulness of Trump. He just left thousands of his own supporters stranded in California (a second time), crapped up a rally by playing 80s soft rock and opera for 45 minutes yesterday after two people collapsed because he leaves them standing for hours in the blazing sun and won't even provide water or toilet facilities for them; and today he couldn't say what he would do about the price of bacon except mumbling something about Ukraine. He told so many whoppers at a women's only rally if he were Pinnochio, his nose would go half way round the globe.
Things always seem darkest just before the dawn. :o) The man, as we say here, is toast. He just hasn't popped up yet.
But that's his plan? To scare people so badly, they don't bother to vote because it is a 'forgone conclusion'
Look Georgia is a key swing state, right? Harris sort of has to win it to get first past the post. I saw a report today that Georgians have turned out on the first day of voting in RECORD numbers. The last highest first day of voting was something like 135,000. Today, over 300,000 people voted! That has to be good news :o) ~And it is just day one! The more people who vote, the EARLIER they vote, the less ambiguous the outcome. The less chance DonOld can stage any kind of coup. The more likely it is that Harris will win
.
Georgia's early voter turnout has shattered records. View the turnout in your county
Anyone who thinks Orange Con Don is bullshitting may be right. He’s a massive fool who will say anything because he believes in nothing but the grift. But the people who surround him; however, absolutely do believe it and are the ones who will do the work to make good on Project 2025, including that little sociopath, JD Vance, enabled by a 2/3 corrupt SCOTUS. That’s the real issue, and it is fucking terrifying.
Hey there Geoff. I'm not gonna try pushing yer buttons or anything. All I'll say is this:
I believe there are better days to come, they will be here soon and in not too much time this will all be in our collective rear-view mirrors.
Would that President Harris take heed from these fraught times especially with the actual "enemy within" and steps are taken to harden the institution of democracy against any future "enemy/enemies within" as well as without!
I enjoy your columns and your insights and the music and your offbeat sense of humor and the fact that you will fucking curse at will and, and, and uh.... well that's all for now.
The question "Why is this even close" is a good one....because how does any decent human being condone this level of criminality and evil shit. And I'm freaked out too....one minute I'm cautiously optimistic, the next I'm wondering what life might be like in Portugal. But I do think that women may save us, because we're all very pissed about Roe. And the numbers for early turnout and the massive amount of signatures gotten for the issue to even appear on the ballot give me some hope. Buck up, my friend. We both know who we already are...we're surrounded by selfish morons. ✌️
Yeah, I'm anxious too because I can't predict the future. I can guess, but I can't know. So, what's my guess?
It depends of a combination of vibes, like GA's massive first-day early voting turnout and polls as they evolve, plus a LOT of assumptions of uncertain applicability. Polls, I can calculate, and my assessment is that the Blue Wall will hold for Harris, Nevada is a maybe but GA, NC and AZ are iffy.
Assumption: Harris takes NE2 and all the other states and electoral districts that Biden took in 2020.
Assumption: Undeclared (there are no undecideds at this point) voters in the Blue Wall swing toward Harris more than to Trump.
Assumption: Security is good enough to prevent terror attacks on election centers that destroy ballots
Assumption: Polling, rather than merely reflecting sentiment at the time of collection, reflects actual voting for November 5.
You were one of the first writers I subscribed to when I got on Substack, and you helped me weather some heavy shit earlier this year (and more recently, too). Your levelheaded analysis and fact based commentary were always spot on. Between you, Tiedrich, Alicia and Jess, I got over the hump and justifiably reclaimed some hope.
Your music reviews always seemed to come right when I was getting overloaded with pessimism and gloom. Perfect, bite sized breaks of sanity just when I needed them. Like anti fascist alka seltzer. So maybe I can return the favor..
Take a big breath, my dude. He’s become so erratic that even WaPo can’t sanewash it. I’m seeing/hearing people pushing back HARD on the MSM narrative. And I swear to gawd, Harris is solid AS FUCK. Brass balls big enough to go in Faux Nooz and sit with America’s most tragic plastic surgery disaster. She’s gonna eat him for lunch and have room for dessert.
I understand the trepidation, the outright fear, you’re feeling.. I remember 2016, I remember 2020 and the insurrection and how he had to be pried out of the Oval Office with a crowbar. I’ve factored all of that into my (admittedly non-scientific) calculations. It’s not going to happen. He may not get the shit kicked out of him like he deserves, but that fucking guy is NOT getting elected.
Touch grass, my friend, play some guitar, grab some headphones and check out the new singles The Cure just dropped. Get off the internet and center yourself again. We’re good, don’t give up now when we’re so very fucking close! We’re not going back!!!
They are not very smart people if they don’t believe the saying: when someone tells you who they are, believe them…and it’s not like we don’t have a mountain of evidence from the last disastrous presidency and his entire life. I feel that people willing to overlook every insane, outlandish, dangerous thing he says are either completely gullible mouth-breathers , and just mean (racist, etc.), or are just mean and greedy. Either way, no one I want in my life. Now you’ve added another layer of reasoning onto my list of why the fuck anyone could vote for this port-a-potty of a human: over-educated, know-it-all, fools who have no visceral instincts - no spidey sense telling them something is definitely wrong here. They are gullible in their own way and it’s all because they might get a tax break?? wtf?! I hope you don’t give these people a pass on their selfish stupidity.
I just renewed my Canadian passport and am going to British Columbia on October 28th. Hardly Strictly Bluegrass is my favorite thing in San Francisco, but if Trump wins, I am not coming back.
Don’t know if it helps, but at least you’re in a blue state with a sane state government. Or saneish. Imagine the hell of being in a state with some freak like Sarah Sanders running it and Trump in charge of the country.
Personally, I think Kamala is going to win, but I am spending some time looking some slivers of light.
I am not sure being in a blue state will make that much of a difference when he starts sending in the national guard and the military to "address" his enemies.
Here’s a small consolation prize: a friend saw my yard sign and asked me about Harris because she really didn’t know much (I know, I know) but will absolutely not vote for Trump. I explained some background and why I’m voting for her and sent links to Harris’s site. 🤞🏼
I think a lot of us are going through the same thing. #Hopium vibe in the am; existential dread at night. Hang in there - I believe Harris will prevail!
I'm right there with you. Nervous as fuck.
Trump is not going to win. NOT GOING TO WIN!!!
Sending you ((hugs)) of reassurance. Look its not over, and the polls - whilst they may be 'accurate' are not telling the whole story. There are, what? 365 million Americans? These polls are only carried out on a few hundred to a thousand mostly self-selecting sample of people at the most. The headline is not reflected in the detailed meta data of the polls. Oh certainly, one metric might be pro-Trump (white middle class men) putting Harris at 50/50 chance, but if you look deeply, Harris is consistently winning 47 - 50+ to Trump's 33 - (there are a lot of undecideds in this election it appears) in poll after poll. Then there's this: On John Oliver's Last Week tonight show this week he looked at voter intimidation. Research showed that people are consistently saying what they think the interviewer wants to hear because they are too scared to dissent. The reality is, they have no intention of actually voting for Trump, they are just saying they will to get the scary MAGA off the phone!
Also, Republicans are now supporting Harris. DonOld's dementing has gone too far and Harris tonight calling him a fascist without any real push-back from the MSM is more telling that any poll.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/openly-fascist-trump-campaign-stuns-onlookers-by-sharing-his-enemy-within-double-down/ar-AA1snY4d
The penny is dropping that a vote for Trump is quite likely going to mean President Vance inside a year because DonOld will be likely diagnosed with dementia of one sort or another and become unfit for Office so Vance will invoke the 25th amendment and bam! "That's MR PRESIDENT to you, Mate!" Across the GOP there are cries of "oh hell no!" and promises that a silent majority will now vote for Harris. https://www.rawstory.com/barbara-comstock-trump-silent-majority/
"People" are waking up to the awfulness of Trump. He just left thousands of his own supporters stranded in California (a second time), crapped up a rally by playing 80s soft rock and opera for 45 minutes yesterday after two people collapsed because he leaves them standing for hours in the blazing sun and won't even provide water or toilet facilities for them; and today he couldn't say what he would do about the price of bacon except mumbling something about Ukraine. He told so many whoppers at a women's only rally if he were Pinnochio, his nose would go half way round the globe.
Things always seem darkest just before the dawn. :o) The man, as we say here, is toast. He just hasn't popped up yet.
Save this and throw it back in my face if I’m wrong: Trump is NOT going to win.
And no, no throwing anything into any face.
I hope you’re right, but all the dissembling and obvious descent into insanity, he remains within the margin of error of winning outright.
Scares the fuck outta me.
But that's his plan? To scare people so badly, they don't bother to vote because it is a 'forgone conclusion'
Look Georgia is a key swing state, right? Harris sort of has to win it to get first past the post. I saw a report today that Georgians have turned out on the first day of voting in RECORD numbers. The last highest first day of voting was something like 135,000. Today, over 300,000 people voted! That has to be good news :o) ~And it is just day one! The more people who vote, the EARLIER they vote, the less ambiguous the outcome. The less chance DonOld can stage any kind of coup. The more likely it is that Harris will win
.
Georgia's early voter turnout has shattered records. View the turnout in your county
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/16/explore-georgias-early-voter-absentee-turnout-by-county/75703577007/
Anyone who thinks Orange Con Don is bullshitting may be right. He’s a massive fool who will say anything because he believes in nothing but the grift. But the people who surround him; however, absolutely do believe it and are the ones who will do the work to make good on Project 2025, including that little sociopath, JD Vance, enabled by a 2/3 corrupt SCOTUS. That’s the real issue, and it is fucking terrifying.
The voters who "need more info" on Kamala, simply cannot consider voting for a woman.
💯 agree. It is lightly coded misogyny
Hey there Geoff. I'm not gonna try pushing yer buttons or anything. All I'll say is this:
I believe there are better days to come, they will be here soon and in not too much time this will all be in our collective rear-view mirrors.
Would that President Harris take heed from these fraught times especially with the actual "enemy within" and steps are taken to harden the institution of democracy against any future "enemy/enemies within" as well as without!
I enjoy your columns and your insights and the music and your offbeat sense of humor and the fact that you will fucking curse at will and, and, and uh.... well that's all for now.
The question "Why is this even close" is a good one....because how does any decent human being condone this level of criminality and evil shit. And I'm freaked out too....one minute I'm cautiously optimistic, the next I'm wondering what life might be like in Portugal. But I do think that women may save us, because we're all very pissed about Roe. And the numbers for early turnout and the massive amount of signatures gotten for the issue to even appear on the ballot give me some hope. Buck up, my friend. We both know who we already are...we're surrounded by selfish morons. ✌️
Geoff please go to You Tube and search Oddball Negative wave scenes Kelly’s Heroes. Always makes me laugh.
Yeah, I'm anxious too because I can't predict the future. I can guess, but I can't know. So, what's my guess?
It depends of a combination of vibes, like GA's massive first-day early voting turnout and polls as they evolve, plus a LOT of assumptions of uncertain applicability. Polls, I can calculate, and my assessment is that the Blue Wall will hold for Harris, Nevada is a maybe but GA, NC and AZ are iffy.
Assumption: Harris takes NE2 and all the other states and electoral districts that Biden took in 2020.
Assumption: Undeclared (there are no undecideds at this point) voters in the Blue Wall swing toward Harris more than to Trump.
Assumption: Security is good enough to prevent terror attacks on election centers that destroy ballots
Assumption: Polling, rather than merely reflecting sentiment at the time of collection, reflects actual voting for November 5.
You were one of the first writers I subscribed to when I got on Substack, and you helped me weather some heavy shit earlier this year (and more recently, too). Your levelheaded analysis and fact based commentary were always spot on. Between you, Tiedrich, Alicia and Jess, I got over the hump and justifiably reclaimed some hope.
Your music reviews always seemed to come right when I was getting overloaded with pessimism and gloom. Perfect, bite sized breaks of sanity just when I needed them. Like anti fascist alka seltzer. So maybe I can return the favor..
Take a big breath, my dude. He’s become so erratic that even WaPo can’t sanewash it. I’m seeing/hearing people pushing back HARD on the MSM narrative. And I swear to gawd, Harris is solid AS FUCK. Brass balls big enough to go in Faux Nooz and sit with America’s most tragic plastic surgery disaster. She’s gonna eat him for lunch and have room for dessert.
I understand the trepidation, the outright fear, you’re feeling.. I remember 2016, I remember 2020 and the insurrection and how he had to be pried out of the Oval Office with a crowbar. I’ve factored all of that into my (admittedly non-scientific) calculations. It’s not going to happen. He may not get the shit kicked out of him like he deserves, but that fucking guy is NOT getting elected.
Touch grass, my friend, play some guitar, grab some headphones and check out the new singles The Cure just dropped. Get off the internet and center yourself again. We’re good, don’t give up now when we’re so very fucking close! We’re not going back!!!
My worry is that the combination of her "blackness" and her lack of a Y chromosome will be enough to prevent her winning.
The racism and misogynoir in America is the poison that we live with.
I hope you're right.
They are not very smart people if they don’t believe the saying: when someone tells you who they are, believe them…and it’s not like we don’t have a mountain of evidence from the last disastrous presidency and his entire life. I feel that people willing to overlook every insane, outlandish, dangerous thing he says are either completely gullible mouth-breathers , and just mean (racist, etc.), or are just mean and greedy. Either way, no one I want in my life. Now you’ve added another layer of reasoning onto my list of why the fuck anyone could vote for this port-a-potty of a human: over-educated, know-it-all, fools who have no visceral instincts - no spidey sense telling them something is definitely wrong here. They are gullible in their own way and it’s all because they might get a tax break?? wtf?! I hope you don’t give these people a pass on their selfish stupidity.
Trump could still have a stroke in the next 3 weeks. 🤞
Otherwise, if he wins, I’m just hoping Stefanik isn’t in charge of gulags or else I’ve got to find that Canadian girlfriend fast.
I just renewed my Canadian passport and am going to British Columbia on October 28th. Hardly Strictly Bluegrass is my favorite thing in San Francisco, but if Trump wins, I am not coming back.
Don’t know if it helps, but at least you’re in a blue state with a sane state government. Or saneish. Imagine the hell of being in a state with some freak like Sarah Sanders running it and Trump in charge of the country.
Personally, I think Kamala is going to win, but I am spending some time looking some slivers of light.
I am not sure being in a blue state will make that much of a difference when he starts sending in the national guard and the military to "address" his enemies.
Here’s a small consolation prize: a friend saw my yard sign and asked me about Harris because she really didn’t know much (I know, I know) but will absolutely not vote for Trump. I explained some background and why I’m voting for her and sent links to Harris’s site. 🤞🏼
Thank you for your honest words.
I am sorry for the pain you are in.
I am in pain, too.
I am by nature hopeful.
But I see disaster coming.
I am so scared.
"These are the days of miracle and wonder
This is the long distance call
The way the camera follows us in slo-mo
The way we look to us all
The way we look to a distant constellation
That's dying in a corner of the sky
These are the days of miracle and wonder
And don't cry, baby, don't cry
Don't cry"
--Paul Simon
I think a lot of us are going through the same thing. #Hopium vibe in the am; existential dread at night. Hang in there - I believe Harris will prevail!