The 2024 election was a clusterfuck of hope and prayers, but the architects of this and the fallout from the poor structural work will become the new Thomas Guide for future national elections.
After reading about Elon’s specifically targeted ads, should such continue, and with AI ascendent I see no reason why it wouldn’t happen, polls and pollsters will become irrelevant; completely useless to anyone. Before cell phones became so prevalent, I used to love fucking with the idiots who interrupted my time to ask their questions. At the time my husband was still a registered republican so we’d always get their mailings and the phone calls. I can’t tell you how many of their return envelopes got stuffed with their own propaganda and returned postage free to them. But the polls were the most fun. Good times.
“Nope, a lot of political consultants who have gotten fat off of providing campaign support to traditional candidates are likely to be the biggest losers going forward”
Geoff, do you think the Democrats consultant class will be jettisoned or do you think they’ll do what they look poised to do - pivot harder to the center, throw trans people under the bus and elect Rahm Emanuel as the next party chair? Curious what your thoughts are.
Oh, the Dem’s consultant class is going to go further to the right, toss Trans (and all the LGBTQ+ folks) under the bus, and become more conservative on immigration and race.
And when it fails, they will shift the Overton window even further to the right.
Yep, that's what the DNC ALWAYS does when it loses! Shift further right—to the point where Dwight Eisenhower(!) would be considered a "dangerous socialist" now. The Republicans, meanwhile, have already turned into The American Nazi Party (or more correctly, The American Putin Party!)—I don't want to know how much further Right they can go, but I'm pretty sure it'll end up with death camps and gulags.
If/when they move to the center, I think the long anticipated split will finally happen. It’s one thing to have both Bernie and Dick Cheney in your coalition for a single election cycle. It’s a whole other thing to try and hold ann umbrella over a group of people with such opposing views of the world together cycle after cycle. It won’t hold.
Here is my thought experiment. What if the next MAGA figurehead comes from the left. I don’t mean a terrible person, just someone who can capture the zeitgeist of that group. Aside from the evangelicals, there is a good chance someone could succeed in this. People like progressive policies, they just hate the Democrats because that’s what they’re supposed to do. A progressive wrapped in MAGA could be a fascinating way out of this. lol. It’s not like they’re not used to being lied to or anything. So, we don’t vociferously advocate for trans rights but we don’t throw them under the bus either, we don’t denounce anybody but quietly write protections into legislation without fanfare and see if anyone notices, etc. No blaming group XYZ for the party’s failures, just a tacit acknowledgement that *all are welcome*. Idk. Spitballing. 🤔
Oh, and while I understand the co-campaigning with Liz Cheney, I think that coupled with being tied to Biden’s support for Israel (which I agree with) alienated enough of the left flank. But I doubt it had any real effect on attracting the so-called “gettable” sane republicans. There is no evidence outside of the minuscule Never Trump cohort that any former republicans broke for Harris.
All that wishcasting about the 18-22% of reliable Haley voters never materialized, and all went back to the Trump fold.
Truly disappointing, but predictable. Any strategy that relies on Republicans going forward is a fool’s errand, because there are no sane “reachable” republicans left. They are all MAGA now, all the time.
Bernie came pretty close to closing the horseshoe.
But I doubt that would lead to a victory. Far too much of the MAGA mentality is focused on inflicting pain on the others, others that Bernie claims to represent.
But Bernie would have no compunction to tossing trans and gay people under the bus. He has his own peccadillos and fetishes, and that cohort makes him nervous.
Bernie is gonna be 87 during the next presidential election cycle. AOC was the heir apparent for a long time, but there are few people more demonized by the bro-ocracy than she has been for the last 6 years. Idk who it could be, tbh. If they end up with a politician, I hope it’s Andy Bashear. I am not sure who else on the current bench could pull it off. He’s a pol, but a dc outsider and that provides some credibility. He’s beloved in his very red state because he gets shit done. He advocated for and vetoed legislation targeting trans kids and beat McConnell s hand picked guy, etc.
We shall see how things shake out. I made my voice heard on Monday night. Not sure how much sway the rank and file will have in selecting the next chair, but if they don’t listen to us, nothing will change and losses will continue until they learn.
I agree with JVL, we are probably a generation or more before the Dem's nominate a woman again. AOC will be SOL. You are spot on about how she raises the ire of the Bro-ocracy.
Bernie's ego knows no bounds. I bet he takes another run at the nomination in 2028.
Beshear is a solid contender, but he has the stench of a "politician". The one thing I will take away from Sarah's Focus Group podcasts is that traditional politicians are toxic, and that toxin is seeping from the right into the left. What that means, and who *might* be electable in that regime is puzzling to me.
Fetterman pre-stroke might be the best left example.
At this time, AOC is a bog-standard pol.
But at least we aren't the dumpster fire that is the current Republican electorate and ecosystem. I just fear that we will chase that dragon.
I think the Dems will nominate another woman when the time is right. I don’t think it will take “a generation”. But we shall see.
Speaking of Sarah’s focus groups, go back and listen to how Kentuckians speak about “Andy” from the VP- stakes shows and the appeal becomes more obvious. They fucking love him.
Two cheers for Selzer actually publishing her poll results...three cheers for doing the right thing post-election, as few pollsters would dare to fall on their swords after effing up so badly.
Well, in his defense, at the end he did have Harris as ca. half-point favorite nationally, and went on record as voting for her, but then again wrote publicly that "his gut" said tRump would take it, so there's that.
There is one possibility, remote though it may be. What if Selzer wasn’t wrong?
Maybe iowa got caught up in the fake Trump ballots too
https://substack.com/inbox/post/151721941?utm_medium=ios
Remind me again, how are the qualifications and credentials for being a journalist and a pollster different?
After reading about Elon’s specifically targeted ads, should such continue, and with AI ascendent I see no reason why it wouldn’t happen, polls and pollsters will become irrelevant; completely useless to anyone. Before cell phones became so prevalent, I used to love fucking with the idiots who interrupted my time to ask their questions. At the time my husband was still a registered republican so we’d always get their mailings and the phone calls. I can’t tell you how many of their return envelopes got stuffed with their own propaganda and returned postage free to them. But the polls were the most fun. Good times.
Those Iowa farmers will wish Ann was right when Bobby K jr gets the corn syrup removed from food and tells them they can’t use GMOs anymore either.
How you voting on him, Chuck Grassley?
... and Muskrat terminates the ethanol subsidies.
I might need more popcorn Kevin!
“Nope, a lot of political consultants who have gotten fat off of providing campaign support to traditional candidates are likely to be the biggest losers going forward”
Geoff, do you think the Democrats consultant class will be jettisoned or do you think they’ll do what they look poised to do - pivot harder to the center, throw trans people under the bus and elect Rahm Emanuel as the next party chair? Curious what your thoughts are.
Oh, the Dem’s consultant class is going to go further to the right, toss Trans (and all the LGBTQ+ folks) under the bus, and become more conservative on immigration and race.
And when it fails, they will shift the Overton window even further to the right.
Mark my words, we will learn nothing from this.
Yep, that's what the DNC ALWAYS does when it loses! Shift further right—to the point where Dwight Eisenhower(!) would be considered a "dangerous socialist" now. The Republicans, meanwhile, have already turned into The American Nazi Party (or more correctly, The American Putin Party!)—I don't want to know how much further Right they can go, but I'm pretty sure it'll end up with death camps and gulags.
If/when they move to the center, I think the long anticipated split will finally happen. It’s one thing to have both Bernie and Dick Cheney in your coalition for a single election cycle. It’s a whole other thing to try and hold ann umbrella over a group of people with such opposing views of the world together cycle after cycle. It won’t hold.
Here is my thought experiment. What if the next MAGA figurehead comes from the left. I don’t mean a terrible person, just someone who can capture the zeitgeist of that group. Aside from the evangelicals, there is a good chance someone could succeed in this. People like progressive policies, they just hate the Democrats because that’s what they’re supposed to do. A progressive wrapped in MAGA could be a fascinating way out of this. lol. It’s not like they’re not used to being lied to or anything. So, we don’t vociferously advocate for trans rights but we don’t throw them under the bus either, we don’t denounce anybody but quietly write protections into legislation without fanfare and see if anyone notices, etc. No blaming group XYZ for the party’s failures, just a tacit acknowledgement that *all are welcome*. Idk. Spitballing. 🤔
Oh, and while I understand the co-campaigning with Liz Cheney, I think that coupled with being tied to Biden’s support for Israel (which I agree with) alienated enough of the left flank. But I doubt it had any real effect on attracting the so-called “gettable” sane republicans. There is no evidence outside of the minuscule Never Trump cohort that any former republicans broke for Harris.
All that wishcasting about the 18-22% of reliable Haley voters never materialized, and all went back to the Trump fold.
Truly disappointing, but predictable. Any strategy that relies on Republicans going forward is a fool’s errand, because there are no sane “reachable” republicans left. They are all MAGA now, all the time.
Bernie came pretty close to closing the horseshoe.
But I doubt that would lead to a victory. Far too much of the MAGA mentality is focused on inflicting pain on the others, others that Bernie claims to represent.
But Bernie would have no compunction to tossing trans and gay people under the bus. He has his own peccadillos and fetishes, and that cohort makes him nervous.
Bernie is gonna be 87 during the next presidential election cycle. AOC was the heir apparent for a long time, but there are few people more demonized by the bro-ocracy than she has been for the last 6 years. Idk who it could be, tbh. If they end up with a politician, I hope it’s Andy Bashear. I am not sure who else on the current bench could pull it off. He’s a pol, but a dc outsider and that provides some credibility. He’s beloved in his very red state because he gets shit done. He advocated for and vetoed legislation targeting trans kids and beat McConnell s hand picked guy, etc.
We shall see how things shake out. I made my voice heard on Monday night. Not sure how much sway the rank and file will have in selecting the next chair, but if they don’t listen to us, nothing will change and losses will continue until they learn.
I agree with JVL, we are probably a generation or more before the Dem's nominate a woman again. AOC will be SOL. You are spot on about how she raises the ire of the Bro-ocracy.
Bernie's ego knows no bounds. I bet he takes another run at the nomination in 2028.
Beshear is a solid contender, but he has the stench of a "politician". The one thing I will take away from Sarah's Focus Group podcasts is that traditional politicians are toxic, and that toxin is seeping from the right into the left. What that means, and who *might* be electable in that regime is puzzling to me.
Fetterman pre-stroke might be the best left example.
At this time, AOC is a bog-standard pol.
But at least we aren't the dumpster fire that is the current Republican electorate and ecosystem. I just fear that we will chase that dragon.
I think the Dems will nominate another woman when the time is right. I don’t think it will take “a generation”. But we shall see.
Speaking of Sarah’s focus groups, go back and listen to how Kentuckians speak about “Andy” from the VP- stakes shows and the appeal becomes more obvious. They fucking love him.
Two cheers for Selzer actually publishing her poll results...three cheers for doing the right thing post-election, as few pollsters would dare to fall on their swords after effing up so badly.
True that.
I still want to throttle Nate Silver's smug mug.
Well, in his defense, at the end he did have Harris as ca. half-point favorite nationally, and went on record as voting for her, but then again wrote publicly that "his gut" said tRump would take it, so there's that.