Trump Failing the basic test
A lesson that should have been learned long ago, and an epic level of arrogance is why we are where we are today. It isn't going to get better anytime soon.
Many of you fabulous readers may know that in my real life, I am a product manager in the Tech industry, a job I have done for almost 30 years. Yeah, I am one old dude.
Anyhow, early-ish in my career, after weathering a few clown-car clusterfucks, I learned a lesson that I continue to instill into my team and peers today: Always ask what "success" looks like. When you are asked to do something that you aren't sure about, ask the {boss|leader|exec|peer} how you know you will have succeeded. A.k.a. what does success look like? If they can't tell you clearly, you should be wary to wade in, because you will beclown yourself, and almost certainly damage your reputation. Hell, I even wrote about this on my product management blog:
Geoff Anderson
You might be scratching your head, and wondering why I spent 200 words on this introductory orthogonal diversion?
Glad you asked. The War with Iran, is a classic example of the not knowing what your are doing...
I woke up too early this morning, and as one does, I scrolled through the March 11 missive by HCR's Letters from an American, and this paragraph leapt off the iPad screen:
It is unclear what victory looks like for the U.S. The administration has offered a range of justifications for its war without suggesting what an endgame looks like. David Brown of the Wall Street Journal reported today that the U.S. and Israel appear to disagree about how long the war should last, with Israeli officials wanting to continue the war by decimating Iran’s oil industry and targeting top Iranian officials.
Holy shit, that is my product management mantra to a 'T'.
Then I opened my NY Times app, and this article pretty much grabbed me by the amygdala:
This starts off with a strong lede:
On Feb. 18, as President Trump weighed whether to launch military attacks on Iran, Chris Wright, the energy secretary, told an interviewer he was not concerned that the looming war might disrupt oil supplies in the Middle East and wreak havoc in energy markets.
Even during the Israeli and U.S. strikes against Iran last June, Mr. Wright said, there had been little disruption in the markets. “Oil prices blipped up and then went back down,” he said.
Yeah, that is some serious recency bias coupled with the world-class chuckle-fuckery™ that has become the stock and trade of the buffoonish Trump administration, ane presto!
It is clear that because their train of B2 bombers, dropping the MOAB bunker busters last summer was a simple process that took about as long as Trump's sexual congress with Stormy Daniels, they felt that Iran wouldn't really be able to respond.
(I was going to insert something horrible here, but I thought better of it - I am growing)
Still, more of the advisors around Trump felt that this would be a "slam dunk" and dismissed that Iran would (or even could) respond in any way that would cause any economic harm.
They truly believed that the regional powers would fête the US for finally dealing with the Iran situation. At least that is the PUA[1] line that Bibi fed Trump and his dynamic duo of crack powerhouse negotiators, Javanka and Wit(less)koff that they took hook, line and sinker.
Sound familiar? If you were around in 2003, in the lead up to the invasion of Iraq, you will start to get chills...
The article continues:
The extent of that miscalculation was laid bare in recent days, as Iran threatened to fire at commercial oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic choke point through which all ships must pass on their way out of the Persian Gulf. In response to the Iranian threats, commercial shipping has come to a standstill in the Gulf, oil prices have spiked, and the Trump administration has scrambled to find ways to tamp down an economic crisis that has triggered higher gasoline prices for Americans.
You know, the average American is about as smart as this guy:
but the one thing that will capture the attention of the average American is how much the magic juice they have to buy every week to feed the maw of their monstrous SUV, and they get pissed.
Locally (Silicon Valley) gas at my local station has gone from $4.15 a gallon the day before the invasion, is now at $4.95. And while I literally drive so little that a tank of gas lasts me 6 weeks or so, I am not that impacted, but I am rare. And I am hearing about it from virtually all of my coworkers. The price of gas is something that us 'muricans care about A LOT.
The extent of that miscalculation was laid bare in recent days, as Iran threatened to fire at commercial oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic choke point through which all ships must pass on their way out of the Persian Gulf. In response to the Iranian threats, commercial shipping has come to a standstill in the Gulf, oil prices have spiked, and the Trump administration has scrambled to find ways to tamp down an economic crisis that has triggered higher gasoline prices for Americans.
Gee, the already partially depleted SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) is getting tapped, after we helped brow beat the IEF to open their taps. Yet there is plenty of oil sitting in boats and storage tanks just north of the Strait of Hormuz.
Clearly, the fuckfaces planning this war on our side didn't think that Iran had the navy to block the strait, and that all our boom-boom floaty/shooty bits could keep things going.
Oops.
From the article:
After Trump administration officials gave a closed-door briefing to lawmakers on Tuesday, Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, said on social media that the administration had no plan for the Strait of Hormuz and did “not know how to get it safely back open.”
Inside the administration, some officials are growing pessimistic about the lack of a clear strategy to finish the war. But they have been careful not to express that directly to the president, who has repeatedly declared that the military operation is a complete success.
Damn, there's that word again: success.
But here's the thing, by kicking this off at the behest of his bosom-buddy Bibi, Trump doesn't control the outcome of this – at least unilaterally. Iran has a say, and Iran has been waiting and watching our actions in the middle east for decades, and regardless what you think of their backwards religious ideologies, they are not dumb. And if there is one thing that America does well, is fight the last war, and not adapting quickly to an evolving enemy. Well, that and an overabundance of confidence and zeal.
I read someone called this action Pete "kegger" Hegseth's crusade, a literal recreation of the crusades in the medieval times. Perhaps he should look up some history, because that didn't go as well as he thinks.
Of course, the offical liar, Karoline Leavitt is up there paying lip service:
Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said the administration “had a strong game plan” before the war broke out, and vowed that oil prices would drop after it ended.
Uh sure.
Buckle in, we're facing some serious turbulence.
1 - PUA is Pick Up Artist. If you don't know what that is, count yourself lucky and don't go down that rabbit hole.
